Director's Foreward

3

Introduction to the methodological challenges in Back-to-the-Future research

Tony J. Pitcher

4

A. Inputs to Models and Modelling

Synoptic methods for constructing models of the past

Johanna J. Heymans and Tony J. Pitcher

11

What was the structure of past ecosystems that had many top predators?

Tony Pitcher

18

The problem of extinctions

Tony Pitcher

21

Challenging ecosystem simulation models with climate change: the Perfect Storm

Tony J. Pitcher and Robyn Forrest

29

Tuning ecosystem models to past data

Richard Stanford

39

Dealing with migratory species in ecosystem models

Steve Martell

41

Estimating the effects of prey-predator vulnerability settings on Ecosim's dynamic function

Cameron Ainsworth

45

Policy search methods for back to the future

Cameron Ainsworth, Johanna J. Heymans and Tony J. Pitcher

48

Environmental archaeology: principles and case studies

Trevor Orchard and Quentin Mackie

64

How traditional knowledge can contribute to environmental research and resource management

Bill Simeone

74

B. Evaluation and Policy Goals

Why we have to open the lost valley: criteria and simulations for sustainable fisheries

Tony Pitcher

78

Evaluating the ecological effects on exploited ecosystems using information theory

Johanna J. Heymans

87

Modifying Kempton's biodiversity index for use with dynamic ecosystem simulation models

Cameron Ainsworth and Tony J. Pitcher

91

An index expressing risk of local extinction for use with dynamic ecosystem simulation Models

Wai Lung Cheung and Tony J. Pitcher

94

How do we value the restoration of past ecosystems?

Ussif Sumaila

103

Economic valuation techniques for Back-To-The-Future optimal policy searches

Cameron Ainsworth and Ussif R. Sumaila

104

An employment diversity index used to evaluate ecosystem restoration strategies

Cameron Ainsworth and Ussif R. Sumaila

108

Evaluating future ecosystems: a great step backward?

Nigel Haggan

109

EIncorporating First Nations values into fisheries management: a proposal for discussion

Rashid Sumaila

112

Aboriginal Values

Simon Lucas

114

C. Community and Workshop Inputs

How we carried out Back-to-the-Future community interviews

Cameron Ainsworth

116

The community workshop: how we did it and what we learned from the results

Melanie D. Power, Nigel Haggan and Tony J. Pitcher

125

Round-Table discussions from a Back-to-the-Future Symposium at UBC, February 2002: Issues in Policy, Visualisation and Presentation

Melanie D. Power and Tony J. Pitcher

129

Rapporteurs report on discussion at the Back-to-the-Future Symposium, UBC, February 2002

Amy Poon and Yvette Rizzo

135

ANNEXES

Back-to-the-Future Symposium Programme, February 2002

155